Case Study – Yishun Bus Services Analytics

This case study was made possible thanks to LTA open access to the land transport data mall. And I would also like to thank MP for Nee Soon South GRC Dr Lee Bee Wah for her continuous endeavour in reaching out to the residents and improving the public transport situation as new residents move in.

1. Developments in Yishun

Developments in Yishun South, Yishun East and Lower Seletar started in 2008. Yishun sub-zones are shown in Figure 1 and its population distributions are shown in Table 2. Prior to the developments, Yishun has seen a steady residential unit of 179,500 (187,200 residents). Residents to the new flats were welcomed from 2012 and Nee Soon currently has a residential unit of 196,600 (214,940 residents), with most of the growth coming from Yishun South, Yishun East and Lower Seletar. It is 9.53% increase of HDB units (14,81% residents increase) in 5 years. Yishun is the third fastest growing town in Singapore, after Punggol and Seng Kang. Table 1 shows the growth across estates.

Figure 1 – URA Sub-Zones for Yishun

Table 1 – HDB Residential Unit Growth

Table 2 – Yishun Population by Sub-Zone

Over the last 5 years, with new Housing Development Board (HDB) flats being built in the area, new residents entered the scene. The distribution of new BTO flats in Yishun with their respective TOP and number of units in each development is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2 – BTO Distribution with TOP and Units in Yishun

2. Bus Transportation in Yishun East, Yishun South and Lower Seletar

To cope with the new residents’ demand, several bus services were introduced such as bus 805 (Feb 2016), 807 (Oct 2017), 860 (Oct 2012 / Oct 2017).

The main buses that ply along the road are:

With a mixture of Single Deck (Rigid), Bendy and Double Decker Bus plying the road, and considering the reluctance of some passengers in proceeding to the second level, we can assume the maximum capacity per bus to be 100 passengers (and with some pushing in by bus ambassadors).

Heavy congestion is especially observed in the morning rush hour. Commuters movements from the above bus stops to Khatib Central and Khatib MRT were tabulated for trend analysis. The destinations are kept to Khatib Central (transfer to bus) and Khatib MRT (transfer to MRT). Both destinations are served by bus 807/807A, and Khatib Central served by 860. Using LTA Data Mall, analytics have been performed to holistically analyse commuter’s movement from source to destination at different time of the day and type of day.

3. Source Bus Stops
The following bus stops which is served by bus 807/860 have been analysed.

Let’s look at the whether the deployment is able to cope with the commuter’s volume.

4. Analytics

Starting with 6am to 7am weekday commuters volume as shown below.

The morning 6am to 7am timeslot has been characterised by higher volume in the month of October and gradually reduced to the month of December. This trend is consistent with school-going children using public transportation to their schools. To meet the demand of commuters during school period, it is recommended the bus deployment to have a maximum frequency of 5mins at each bus stop (not just departure from bus interchange). If the frequency is 5mins or more at each bus stop, double decker buses or bendy buses are recommended to be deployed.

Next is the 7am to 8am weekday distribution below.

The morning 7am to 8am timeslot start to have working professionals coming in. This has been characterised by consistent volume in both October and November. The month of December are the vacation time period and it has 10% less volume than normal. To meet the demand of commuters during this period, it is recommended the bus deployment to have a maximum frequency of 3mins at each bus stop (not just departure from bus interchange). If the frequency is 3mins or more at each bus stop, double decker buses or bendy buses are recommended to be deployed.

Then we have the 8am to 9am weekday commuters volume below.

The morning 8am to 9am timeslot start to have working professionals coming in. This has been characterised by consistent volume in both October and November. The month of December are the vacation time period and it has 10% less volume than normal. To meet the demand of commuters during this period, it is recommended the bus deployment to have a maximum frequency of 4mins at each bus stop (not just departure from bus interchange). If the frequency is 4mins or more at each bus stop, double decker buses or bendy buses are recommended to be deployed.

And finally the 9am to 10am weekday commuters volume

The morning 9am to 10am timeslot is the off-peak period. This has been characterised by consistent volume in both October, November and December. To meet the demand of commuters during this period, it is recommended the bus deployment to have a maximum frequency of 6mins at each bus stop (not just departure from bus interchange). If the frequency is 6mins or more at each bus stop, double decker buses or bendy buses are recommended to be deployed.

5. Conclusion and Recommendations for buses

The top 3 highest commuters boarding bus stops

This is consistent with the housing estates that are being served from these bus stops.

The frequency of bus 807/807A at each bus stop at different timing should be:

• 6am to 7am should have a maximum bus frequency of 5mins at each bus stop.
• 7am to 8am should have a maximum bus frequency of 3mins at each bus stop.
• 8am to 9am should have a maximum bus frequency of 4mins at each bus stop.
• 9am to 10am should have a maximum bus frequency of 6mins at each bus stop.
• Only Bendy or Double Decker Buses should be deployed.

(Further education and promotion to commuters to move back or upstairs)

(Encourage boarding from back of bus to reduce waiting time of buses at each bus stops)

• Departure from bus interchange should consider the maximum frequency minus the variation (due to usual traffic conditions at each timing and traffic light conditions).

LTA together with the MP for Nee Soon South have used passenger analytics and made substantial ground studies. They have made changes to the frequency of bus service 807/807A. It is now between 2mins to 5mins (improvement from the previous 2mins to 7mins) between the timing of 6.30am to 9am. And this led to many happy commuters in Yishun.

There is a Part II to this article which will cover train analytics from Khatib MRT Station. And Part III will be a step by step guide on how you can access government open data and create innovative apps.